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Markets approach the end of what has been a pretty difficult week. The single currency has made news lows for the year (vs. the USD) and markets have no more faith in the ability of eurozone leaders to quell speculation around a Greek exit as anti-bailout parties retain their lead in the Greek election opinion polls. We’ve also seen the capitulation of the single currency, something which we talked about earlier this month, where the euro has been the weakest [...]
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Probably not by accident, yesterday’s Brussels dinner party of EU leaders ended too late for the European press to pass judgement. There was a weight of expectations, which was largely misplaced given this was an informal meeting to pave the way for the main summit of leaders at the end of next month. The same differences remain on common bonds and the financial transaction tax (UK opposing) and more subtle differences on the growth agenda. Of course, everyone would like [...]
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The informal Summit of European Leaders that took place in Brussels late on Wednesday concluded with little progress on agreeing concrete measures to tackle the euro zone debt crisis. EU leaders did not reach an agreement on a clear path forward for Greece, nor on shoring up euro zone banks despite growing fears of contagion to the periphery countries. Spain’s banking sector is already under alot of stress. No progress was made on euro zone bonds. All this reflects deep [...]
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Fitch downgraded Japan by two notches yesterday afternoon from AA to A+ with outlook negative. The agency justified the credit rating cuts by saying that the Japanese government isn’t reactive enough in tackling its “high and rising public debt ratios”. The move came in a few hours after the OECD urged Japan to prioritize the implementation of a fiscal consolidation plan, as debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 200 percent, and budget deficits are forecast at 10 percent of GDP for the current [...]
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The dollar index made a new high for the year yesterday, 3.8% higher than the level seen at the start of the month. This follows on from two sessions of downward pressure on the dollar, which was more down to the extent of short positioning on some of currencies under pressure for most of the month. As we start the European session, EUR/USD itself is not that far off the lows for the year at 1.2624 as EU leaders meet [...]
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It’s Monday and the shifting sands of the European mindset are moving (not for the first time) towards the issuance of common bonds as a means of overcoming the sovereign crisis. This is one of the changes in momentum that has emerged from the weekend’s meeting of G8 leaders, together with giving the EFSF the ability to re-capitalise banks. It’s a sign that there is stronger desire to see an alternative to the hard-line German stance of austerity, with few [...]
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Whether you’re a user or not, you no doubt know of Facebook. The social networking service is visited by an estimated 900 million active users per month and is a cultural phenomenon. Can we expect another, more unusual miracle from the tech giant? Can the company’s IPO help lift the general sentiment and the broader equities market? We will discuss how this event could potentially alter the course of market itself and how – through risk trend connections – it [...]
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Yet another day where the bears were in charge, despite the fact that some European markets were shuttered for Ascension Day. European equities continued to slide, with losses generally ranging from 1% to 2%. Russia fared worse than most, falling by more than 4%. In the forex world, the dollar was again in the ascendancy; the euro fell under 1.27, cable dropped to near 1.58, and the Aussie traded through 0.99. Commodities were also under pressure, with Brent under USD [...]
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Nearly five years into the global credit crunch, you get a feeling for when something has reached the point of no return, when no amount of reassurance, promises or policies will fight the tide of markets. This is not to define markets as pure ‘speculators’, rather rational individuals and entities that are removing deposits from Greek banks, reducing their exposures to all types of market risk and doing their best not to be crushed by a moving train that is [...]
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News that ongoing talks amongst politicians in Greece have failed to come up with a coalition government and that new elections will need to be called, has triggered renewed fears that a Greek exit from the eurozone might not be too far away. In response, risk assets are again on the defensive with both traders and investors seeking sanctuary in the US dollar. Overnight, the dollar index stopped just short of its highest level for the year, reaching 81.45. The [...]
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